How long to smoke a turkey: plan the Thanksgiving cook backwards from dinner

Plan on 6 to 8 hours for a 12 pound turkey at 225 to 250°F. That is Traeger's estimate, from its rule of thumb of 30 to 40 minutes a pound. Masterbuilt's chart estimates 30 minutes a pound at 220°F for an 8 to 12 pound bird, which puts the same turkey at 6 hours. USDA's Food Safety and Inspection Service estimates 20 to 30 minutes a pound in a smoker held between 225 and 300°F, or 4 to 6 hours. Three published estimates, a four hour spread, one bird. None of them is a finish time. The turkey is done when a food thermometer reads 165°F in the innermost part of the thigh, the innermost part of the wing and the thickest part of the breast. FSIS treats that reading as the only test.

So the real question is how early to start, so that the thermometer decides dinner and the clock does not. What follows is that schedule.

Pick a bird the smoker and FSIS are comfortable with

FSIS's smoking table covers whole turkeys of 8 to 12 pounds, unstuffed. Its reason for the stuffing rule is that smoking cooks at a low temperature and a filled cavity takes too long to reach 165°F. It gives no reason for the weight cap, and I read it as the same logic applied to a thick bird. FSIS also says to thaw the bird completely and never to smoke a frozen turkey.

Traeger draws its line at 16 pounds and says to smoke two smaller birds, or add a bone-in breast, rather than one big turkey for a crowd. Its planning figure is a pound and a half per person: one 12 to 14 pound bird for 8 to 10 people, two for 16 to 18. Traeger does not recommend stuffing the cavity on a smoker either. Masterbuilt's chart stops at 12 pounds.

Then the rack. Masterbuilt says its 30 inch Digital Electric Smoker holds two turkeys across four racks and 710 square inches, with controls that set temperatures up to 275°F. In a vertical cabinet the limit is height rather than area: a whole bird has to clear the rack above it, so check the spacing before buying the turkey. On a pellet grill the limit is the lower grate, and what size pellet grill explains why the headline square-inch total overstates what fits. The Masterbuilt 30 review covers that cabinet.

The published estimates, side by side

Every figure in the table is the publisher's estimate. Traeger's 325°F totals work out to roughly 13 to 16 minutes a pound, arithmetic on Traeger's numbers rather than a rate it publishes, and they sit inside FSIS's oven table. Traeger says 225 to 275°F is the range for the start of a smoke and that raising the grill to 275°F near the end helps the skin, but it gives no per-pound rate at 275°F. Masterbuilt's 18 minutes a pound, from its Gravity Series turkey page, is the only published rate at that temperature.

Run a 12 pound bird through the table and the low-temperature answers are 4 to 6 hours, 6 hours, and 6 to 8 hours. Plan with the highest number your temperature produces. Finishing early is a problem with a fix. Finishing late is not.

Why the per-pound figure is only a planning number

FSIS lists what moves the time: the size and shape of the turkey, its distance from the heat, the temperature of the coals and the temperature of the outside air. Its general figure for smoking meat or poultry is 4 to 8 hours, and it says that spread is exactly why the thermometers matter. Weight is a stand-in for thickness, and a poor one. Two 14 pound birds with different breast depths finish at different times, and the per-pound rate cannot know which one is on the rack.

Traeger adds altitude: above 5,000 feet, allow another 10 to 15 minutes a pound. FSIS adds wind, and says to put the smoker where it is shielded from wind so it can hold a safe cooking temperature.

The door is the variable the cook controls. FSIS says to place the bird quickly and replace the cover. Traeger's argument for a leave-in thermometer is that it reads the bird without the lid coming up. Masterbuilt's side chip loader puts wood in without opening the door, which Masterbuilt describes as keeping the smoke in. Every opening drops the chamber temperature and adds minutes no chart counted. Pellet grill temperature swings covers what a lid opening does to a pellet grill's controller.

Start the thaw on the right day

FSIS's refrigerator rule is about 24 hours for every 4 to 5 pounds at 40°F or below, with the bird in a container so it cannot drip on other food. Its table: 1 to 3 days for 4 to 12 pounds, 3 to 4 days for 12 to 16, 4 to 5 days for 16 to 20, 5 to 6 days for 20 to 24. A thawed turkey can then wait 1 or 2 days before cooking. For a Thursday cook, a 14 pound bird goes into the refrigerator by Sunday, and Saturday is fine because of that 1 to 2 day allowance. Traeger's version is 24 hours per 5 pounds, about three days for a 16 pound bird.

If the schedule has slipped, FSIS's cold water method takes about 30 minutes a pound in a leak-proof bag, with the water changed every 30 minutes, and the bird cooked immediately after. The counter is never an option. FSIS says a package left thawing more than 2 hours is no longer at a safe temperature, even with the center still frozen. FSIS allows roasting a frozen turkey in an oven with 50 percent more time. It does not allow smoking one.

Plan backwards from the serving time

Start at the hour people sit down and subtract. The rest comes first: FSIS says to let the bird stand 20 minutes before carving, and Traeger says 15 to 20. Then the cook, at the high end of the estimate for your temperature. Then the buffer: Traeger says to plan an extra hour of cooking time into the day, just in case. Then the preheat, which Traeger puts at 15 minutes with the lid closed.

Worked through for a 4 pm dinner and a 12 pound bird at 225 to 250°F, using Traeger's 8 hour high end: off the smoker by 3:40, on the grate by 7:40 am, on by 6:40 with the hour of buffer, and lit at 6:25. At 325°F the same bird is about 3 hours by Traeger's table, so it goes on around 11:40 and the grill lights at 11:25. An electric cabinet that stops at 275°F cannot run the 325°F schedule, so plan it on the low-temperature rates. The buffer is not pessimism. A bird that finishes early can be held hot. A bird that is 12 degrees short at 4 pm has no equivalent fix.

Probe placement and the 165°F rule

FSIS wants two thermometers. One reads the air in the smoker, which has to stay between 225 and 300°F for the whole cook. If the smoker has no built-in gauge, FSIS says to set an appliance thermometer on the rack before lighting. The other reads the meat. An oven-safe probe can go in before the cook and stay there, and an instant-read confirms the number after the bird comes out. Traeger's placement for the leave-in probe is the thickest part of the breast, clear of bone, because bone throws the reading.

The finish line is FSIS's: 165°F in the innermost part of the thigh, the innermost part of the wing and the thickest part of the breast, all three, checked with a food thermometer. Traeger's tips describe pulling the breast at 160°F on the expectation that it rises 5 to 10 degrees during the rest, and letting thighs run to 175°F. FSIS's number is measured before the bird leaves the heat, and FSIS is the safety authority here, so plan to 165°F in all three places. Meat doneness temperatures has the full USDA table.

Rest, hold, and the two-hour clock

After the 20 minute rest, the bird is either carved or held, and FSIS's line for holding is 140°F or warmer. Once the meal is over, the clock that matters is two hours from the time the turkey came off the smoker. FSIS says to refrigerate within that window, cut into smaller pieces in shallow containers so it cools fast. If the room is above 90°F the window is one hour. Leftovers keep 3 to 4 days refrigerated or 3 to 4 months frozen, and are reheated to 165°F.

Wood, water and the box itself

FSIS says any wood added is soaked hardwood or fruitwood, never softwood such as pine, fir, cedar or spruce, which leaves a turpentine flavor and a coat of black pitch. On a charcoal smoker it says to keep the liquid pan filled and add fuel every 1 to 2 hours, because heat and moisture together hold the smoke at cooking temperature. Which wood belongs on poultry is covered in smoking wood flavors. The schedule above works on any of them, because it was never about the wood. It is about starting early enough that the thermometer gets the last word.